Republican Presidential Nominating Contests
A crowded field of candidates sought the Republican nomination, but most of them were eliminated early. Five dropped out before the Iowa caucuses took place on February 1, 2016. After the New Hampshire primary was held on February 9, five more retired from the race. By early March, there were just four active candidates: Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich. The three challengers to Trump hoped that as the field narrowed, Republican support would unite behind one of them as the best alternative to Trump. That did not happen. Trump continued to win primaries. By early May, it was clear that Trump was almost certain to secure enough convention delegates for the nomination.
During the several months before the first nomination contests, the period referred to as the invisible primary, Trump dominated the news. He combined his existing celebrity status with a variety of bombastic and controversial statements that inevitably were covered in the nightly news. Rather than spend large sums of money on paid political ads, Trump held campaign rallies and events, where he engaged in behavior that was sure to attract media attention. He also issued a constant stream of tweets, which were widely reported in the media. At his rallies and in his tweets, Trump frequently insulted and mocked his Republican opponents. Throughout his nomination campaign, he made bold promises, such as saying that he would build a wall along the Mexican border and make Mexico pay for it, which was part of a broader criticism of existing immigration policies. He charged that those in power had allowed foreign countries to take advantage of the United States, especially regarding trade deals, which he claimed had ruined the American economy. His rash statements and harsh criticisms fit his image as a bold outsider who could clean up the mess in Washington (Costa 2017).
For the most part, Trump's Republican opponents refrained from attacking him back. Each thought that the best strategy would be to let others engage in the attacks, hoping to then win the votes of the Trump supporters after his campaign faded, which they thought that it would. Among his four strongest opponents, Cruz was the one who also could be seen as an outsider, even though he was a U.S. senator. Cruz was the most conservative of the top Republican contenders, particularly on social issues, which made him popular among religious conservatives. Kasich was the most moderate of the top contenders, and he also was the most experienced, having served in Congress for many years before becoming governor of Ohio. Rubio was between Kasich and Cruz in ideology and in insider/outsider status, and many observers thought that he would be the candidate who could unite the various factions of the party together, but his campaign failed to catch fire, and he even lost the primary in his home state, Florida, to Trump.
Cruz narrowly won the first event, the Iowa caucuses, with just 28 percent of the vote; Trump and Rubio were close behind. In the next contest, the New Hampshire primary, Trump did much better, considerably exceeding expectations. Trump won 35 percent of the vote, Kasich was a distant second with 17 percent, and Cruz finished third with just 12 percent. Trump followed that victory with another in South Carolina, where he captured almost one-third of the vote, with Rubio well behind at 22 percent and Cruz slightly behind that. On March 1, twelve states held primaries or caucuses in what was termed Super Tuesday. Trump won seven of those contests, keeping him as the clear leader in the nomination race. However, in no contest did Trump win 50 percent of the vote, leading his opponents to hope that there was a majority of Republican voters were opposed to Trump and that Trump could be defeated if that support would coalesce behind a single candidate. It never did. Trump finished with some strong victories and secured a majority of the convention delegates.
Results of the Republican caucuses and primary elections can be found at: